No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue NCAA Tournament Sweet 16 predictions: Odds, recent stats, trends, and best bets
· Yahoo Sports
Cinderellas are at a premium in this year’s NCAA Tournament. One of the few remaining is Texas. The Longhorns were in the First Four game a little over one week ago. Yet here they stand in the Sweet 16 after upsets of BYU and Gonzaga. Their unlikely run continues Thursday when they take a step up in class against the Purdue Boilermakers.
Braden Smith and the Boilermakers arrive in San Jose following wins over Queens and Miami (FL). Texas may be a Cinderella, but Purdue will need a better night out of Smith than they got vs. Miami should they hope to advance and push their overall win streak to seven games. In their second round win, the NCAA’s all-time assist leader did tally eight assists but he also turned the ball over eight times and scored a mere 12 points. His night included going scoreless from three-point range on four attempts.
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The Longhorns have ridden on the back of Matas Vokietaitis to reach the Sweet 16. The sophomore center has scored 40 points and pulled down 25 rebounds over the last two games.
This battle for a spot in the Elite 8 may come down to Texas’ ability to disrupt Purdue's elite offensive efficiency, led by the aforementioned Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Trey Kaufman-Renn. Purdue averages over nine three-pointers per game and excels at exploiting "drop coverage" defenses, a scheme Texas utilizes frequently. To pull off the upset, the Longhorns will need to force Purdue into tough isolation shots and capitalize on their own ability to get to the free-throw line, where they rank among the best in the country.
Individual matchups to watch include the backcourt duel between Purdue’s Smith and Texas standout Dailyn Swain, whose athleticism will be critical in pressuring Purdue's lead guards. Rebounding will also be a major point of emphasis; while Texas has been a strong rebounding team all season, Purdue survived against Miami despite being outrebounded 33-28.
A couple injuries to pay attention to: C. J. Cox (knee) and Lassina Traore (undisclosed). Cox hurt his knee during the Boilermakers’ last game against Miami (FL). His absence puts a dent in the backcourt of the Boilermakers without question. The Longhorns miss Traore but have learned to play and win without him since his injury back in early February.
Lets take a closer look at this Sweet 16 matchup and take into consideration lineups, injuries, and other factors affecting the line and total.
We’ve got all the info and analysis you need to know ahead of the game, including the latest info on how to catch tipoff, odds courtesy of DraftKings recent team performance, player stats, and of course, our predictions, picks best bets for the game from our modeling tools and staff of experts.
Game Details and How to Watch Live: Texas vs. Purdue
- Date: Thursday, March 26, 2026
- Time: 7:10PM EST
- Site: SAP Center
- City: San Jose, CA
- Network/Streaming: CBS
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Game Odds: Texas vs. Purdue
The latest odds as of Wednesday courtesy of DraftKings:
- Moneyline: Texas Longhorns (+285), Purdue Boilermakers (-360)
- Spread: Purdue -7.5
- Total: 148.5 Points
This game opened Purdue -7.5 with the Total set at 149.5.
Be sure to check out DraftKings for all the latest game odds & player props for every matchup this week on the NCAA Basketball schedule!
Read More: Reranking the Sweet 16
Expected Starting Lineups: Texas vs. Purdue
Texas Longhorns
- G Jordan Pope
- G Dailyn Swain
- G Tramon Mark
- F Camden Heide
- C Matas Vokietaitis
Purdue Boilermakers
- G C.J. Cox
- G Braden Smith
- G Fletcher Loyer
- F Trey Kaufman-Renn
- C Oscar Cluff
Important stats, trends and insights: Texas vs. Purdue
- Texas is 19-15 ATS overall this season
- Purdue is 17-20 ATS overall this season
- The OVER has cashed in 19 of Texas’ 34 games this season (19-15)
- The OVER has cashed in 19 of Purdue’s 37 games this season (19-18)
- Braden Smith’s 8 turnovers against Miami (FL) were a season high
- Fletcher Loyer is stroking the ball through 2 Tournament games going 11-16 from the field including 8-12 from beyond the arc
- Dailyn Swain is 9-10 from the charity stripe through three Tournament games
- Texas Head Coach Sean Miller has won 508 games in his career (Xavier, Arizona, Texas)
Rotoworld Best Bet
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Our model calculates projections around each moneyline, spread and over/under bet for every game on the NCAA calendar based on data points like recent performance, head-to-head player matchups, trends information and projected game totals.
Once the model is finished running, we put its projections next to the latest betting lines for the game to arrive at a relative confidence level for each wager.
Here are the best bets our model is projecting for Thursday’s game between Texas and Purdue:
- Moneyline: Rotoworld Bet is staying away from a play on the Moneyline
- Spread: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on Purdue -7.5
- Total: Rotoworld Bet is leaning towards a play on the Game Total UNDER 148.5
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