March Madness Predictions: Our Best Parlay for the First Round
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It’s time for the best two days in the world of sports betting, as the first round of the NCAA Tournament is upon us.
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I’m picking a three-game parlay for each day, focusing on underrated favorites on Thursday, along with some opportunities in what are expected to be lopsided contests on Friday.
Read on to see my best March Madness picks for the first round on March 19 and 20.
March Madness Round 1 Parlay
Thursday, March 19
img src="https://images.covers.com/betting/sportsbooks/2/bet365.png" alt="bet365 Logo" loading="lazy" width="194" height="62"Vanderbilt -11.5
Wisconsin -10
Saint Mary's -3
The Vanderbilt Commodores deserved better than a No. 5 seed, and bettors shouldn’t be fooled by the fact that this isn’t a traditionally strong basketball program. The Commodores went 11-7 in a loaded SEC schedule, and have been an outstanding offensive team, with Tyler Tanner (19.1 ppg) leading an attack that scores 86.4 ppg.
The McNeese Cowboys come in on a 10-game winning streak, but they haven’t played much competition — their best win is probably a neutral site victory over the Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks, and they looked overmatched in their couple of opportunities against truly strong opponents, such as losing by 41 to the Michigan Wolverines. Vanderbilt should handle this game with relative ease.
The High Point Panthers run a fast-paced offense that averages 90.0 ppg, but playing that fast may be their undoing against the Wisconsin Badgers. High Point’s numbers come against one of the weakest schedules in the country, and the Panthers have zero Quad 1 or Quad 2 victories on their resume this season.
On the other hand, the Badgers rate 11th in the nation in offensive efficiency at KenPom.com. The more possessions we see, the more I expect Wisconsin to pull away in this game, which could lead to an ugly scoreline against a Panthers defense that can charitably be called mediocre.
Always playing in the shadow of the Gonzaga Bulldogs, the Saint Mary’s Gaels seem consistently underrated by fans and bettors. This is a legitimate top 25 team with an outstanding defense that allows just 64.6 ppg.
The Texas A&M Aggies will test that defense, as Rashaun Agee (14.7 ppg) and company present threats that can score from all over the court. But it’s actually the Aggies defense that I think will let them down here, as they allow 79.6 ppg, while the Gaels are no slouches offensively themselves, ranking 40th in offensive rating at KenPom. Saint Mary’s will get more big stops and win by enough to cover the spread.
Friday, March 20
img src="https://images.covers.com/betting/sportsbooks/2/bet365.png" alt="bet365 Logo" loading="lazy" width="194" height="62"Arizona -30.5
Furman +20.5
Hofstra +11.5
It’s always scary to bet on a No. 1 seed giving so many points, but the Arizona Wildcats look set up to produce a major blowout in the first round. We know Arizona is one of the best teams in the country on both ends of the court, so this is more about how well the LIU Sharks can hang in this game.
I’m doubting the Sharks will be able to do much at all here. LIU put up a 24-10 record against one of the weakest schedules in the country, and were shaky defensively even against that weak opposition, allowing opponents to score 71.1 ppg while shooting 44.5% from the field. The Wildcats could easily win this game by 40 or more.
The Furman Paladins have almost no chance of getting out of the first round, but they might keep things closer than expected against the UConn Huskies. UConn’s defense, which allowed 65.1 ppg this year, will hold Furman in check, but the Huskies like playing deliberate basketball, which will also make it difficult to produce a blowout.
Furman has also held its opponents to 70.5 ppg this year, and if UConn ends up anywhere in that range, it will be difficult for the favorites to cover a 20.5-point spread. The Huskies played seven Quad 3 games this year, and only one of them resulted in a 20+ point win, so I’m not expecting them to run away with this one quite as easily as the talent gap might suggest.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are capable of running up the score on opponents, as they run one of the most efficient offenses in college basketball at one of the fastest tempos in the nation. But their defense has let them down at times, allowing opponents to score 83.5 ppg, one of the worst marks in the nation, and that’s not all about pace, as they allow opponents to get to the line regularly and shoot 33.5% from three-point range.
That could play right into the hands of the Hofstra Pride, who shoot 36.8% from deep. Hofstra isn’t a bad team by any stretch – they rank in the top 10 nationally in both offensive and defensive efficiency — and Alabama hasn’t been great as a big favorite, going 6-6 ATS when favored by double digits. I’m expecting the Pride to cover in a high-scoring game.
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