How Lucky Was Chicago Bears Quarterback Caleb Williams Last Season?
· Yahoo Sports
Caleb Williams kept the football out of harm's way in Year 1 of Ben Johnson's offense.
The Chicago Bears' quarterback finished with just eight giveaways (interceptions lost and fumbles lost), which was tied for the 25th-least among quarterbacks with at least 200 passing attempts. As a rookie, Williams threw just six interceptions and lost two fumbles.
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Johnson shared during organized team activities earlier in the week that ball security and takeaways will be areas that the offense emphasizes this season.
So far through his first two years in the league, Williams has done his part in limiting giveaways.
But there has also been some luck involved.
Pro Football Focus conducted a deep dive on interception luck. Here are some of the questions the sports analytics company wanted to answer when it pertained to interceptions:
- "How right is that numbers?"
- "How much of it is truly on the quarterback?"
- "How much comes down to good luck, and conversely, how much of it is simply bad luck?"
To help answer those questions, PFF created the turnover-worthy play metric. A turnover worth plays is "charged whenever a quarterback puts the ball directly in harm’s way with a throw that should reasonably result in a turnover — a bad read into coverage, a late throw over the middle, an underthrown deep shot or any pass that earns a play-level grade of -1 or worse."
PFF also developed "Net Luck," which is determined by the following equation.
(Turnover-worthy interceptions avoided versus league-average conversion) - (Non-turnover worthy interceptions incurred versus league average) = Net Luck
There are so many more details that go into PFF's process to determine Net Luck, so I highly encourage you to check out their website, but here is where Williams ranked among other quarterbacks in the NFL.
Williams finished as the No. 8 luckiest quarterback last season.
- Turnover Worthy Plays = 20
- Interceptions on Turnover Worthy Throws = 9
- Non-Turnover Worthy Play Interceptions = 3
- Total Interceptions = 12
- Turnover Worthy Plays -> Interception % = 45.0%
- Net Luck = +2.9
To compare, Matthew Stafford was the luckiest quarterback last season, finishing with a +6.8 Net Luck.
Williams' luck also translated to his rookie season. According to PFF, Williams finished with a +5.7 Net Luck in 2024, tying with Aaron Rodgers' 2021 season for the eighth luckiest season in the last decade.
"Caleb Williams‘ rookie year ranks No. 8. Williams' +5.7 net-luck figure in 2024 always pointed toward a likely correction, and 2025 delivered it almost exactly as the model would predict. His turnover-worthy-play interception conversion rate jumped from 26.7% to 45.0%, and his interception total doubled from six to 12 despite a broadly similar decision-making profile underneath. It's a clean example of how quickly interception totals can swing once turnover luck regresses toward league average — and a warning sign for the quarterbacks sitting atop the 2025 positive-luck leaderboard."
As the last sentence in the above paragraph states, Williams' luck is a warning sign for the young quarterback. There were times the ball was put in harm's way, but defenders simply couldn't capitalize.
Johnson wants his quarterback to remain cognizant of turnovers and the decisions he is making with the ball in his hands. With another year in Johnson's offense, Williams should have a better understanding of the system, naturally limiting the turnover-worthy plays.